MOSCOW, Dec 2 (PRIME) – There is significant risk of an oil price decrease as global economic growth slows down, demand in China dwindles and the U.S. production rises, the Russian central bank said in a report released on Monday.
According to the central bank, the average Urals price in 2019 is estimated at U.S. $63 per barrel in 2019, $55 in 2020 and $50 in 2021–2022.
“The risk of an oil price decline remains significant, first of all, in conditions of a global economic growth slowdown,” the document read. “Lower demand in China and the factor of growing production in the U.S. are increasingly influencing the oil prices.”
Besides, according to the central bank, a surge of Russians’ debt burden coupled with real income stagnation is a threat to Russia’s financial stability. “The set of internal vulnerabilities which can trigger or strengthen the risks to the financial stability has remained unchanged. The problem of a higher debt burden of the population and a weak disposable income rise is one of the key vulnerabilities,” the central bank said.
The central bank said that people with an income of less than 20,000 rubles per month and disburse more than 80% of this income to repay debt are the most vulnerable category.
Volatility on the external financial markets can influence the Russian financial market but its resilience has lately grown, the ruler said.
The central bank sees a trend of reduction of foreign currency assets and liabilities of banks, and the foreign currency liquidity situation is favorable.
(64.0817 – U.S. $1)
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